Linear Regression Statistical Model to Estimate the Population that Receives Humanitarian Action due to Emergencies and Disasters in Ecuador.
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Abstract
The objective of this research work is to estimate, through a mathematical model, the population that received humanitarian aid due to the emergency or natural disasters that arose in the coastal and highland regions of Ecuador. The statistical model of multiple linear regression was applied, which considers seven explanatory variables: (1) affected population (2) affected population (3) affected houses (4) destroyed houses (5) hectares of affected crops (6) hectares of lost crops (7) probability of occurrence, with the following scheme
Y=β0+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+β5X5+β6X6+β7X7+ei
The work data correspond to 811 records in the period 2016 - 2020 and come from the reports of the National Risk Management System and the fire departments of Ecuador. Seven variables were considered, however, only three variables express validity, consistency and reliability of the parameters and are within the acceptance range. The results of the multiple linear regression model were: Y=36451+0.16X1+0.38X2+0.858X3+ei, from this statistical tool it is intended to predict future impacts due to emergencies or disasters in order to plan logistics and immediate assistance designed to save lives, alleviate suffering, maintain and protect human dignity, in prevention or in emergency situations and/or rehabilitation.
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Anita Karina Serrano-Castro, Instituto Superior Tecnológico Tres de Marzo - Ecuador
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0347-1823
Currently Titular Rector of the Instituto Superior Tecnológico Tres de Marzo, Rector in charge of the Instituto Superior Tecnológico San Lorenzo and the Instituto Superior Tecnológico San Miguel; SENESCYT Accredited Researcher REGISTERED - REG-INV-20-04292;
UEB Research Teacher for a period of 9 years, Master in Educational Management, Master in Risk and Disaster Management, Specialist in Educational Management, Graduate in Educational Sciences, Marketing Engineer, dedicated to contributing to the strengthening of the educational system, research and development of highly trained professionals who contribute to the advancement of society.
Martha Magdalena González-Rivera, Instituto Superior Tecnológico Tres de Marzo - Ecuador
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3211-4988
Currently a professor at the Instituto Superior Tecnológico Tres de Marzo, Coordinator of Research, Development and Innovation, Coordinator of Links with Society; Formulation and Execution of Research, Social, Productive Investment projects, Development of Development Plans and Land Management; UEB Research Teacher for a period of 10 years, INIAP Field Technician for a period of 3, GIS Management, Project Advisory Consultant (...), Agroforestry Engineer, Bachelor of Accounting and Auditing, Master in Agroecology and Environment.
Luis Fernando Verdezoto-Del Salto, Universidad Estatal de Bolívar - Ecuador
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8068-331X
Agricultural Engineer graduated from the State University of Bolívar. Master in Management of Agricultural Companies, Specialist in Agricultural Production and diploma in Agricultural Economics. University teacher. Interested in lines of research in the field of university education, plant health, precision agriculture, ecology and environmental sustainability. Author and co-author of various scientific articles indexed at the regional level.
Juan Carlos Muyulema-Allaica, Universidad Estatal Península de Santa Elena / Centro de Investigación e Innovación de Ingeniería Industrial - Ecuador
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9663-8935
Currently Research Professor at the Faculty of Engineering Sciences of the State University Santa Elena Peninsula; Professor at Postgraduate level at PUCESM, UPSE, UCE and UISEK; Accredited Researcher by Senescyt (REG-INV-19-03841); Engineering and Business Projects Manager of CAAPTES Group-Ecuador Group. Doctor in Industrial Engineering: Industrial Design and Production Technologies, Master in Industrial Engineering, mention Planning and Control of Production and Services, Master in Business Management Based on Quantitative Methods, Industrial Engineer and Commercial Engineer. Dedicated from the business sector to contribute to the strengthening of the innovation ecosystem through research work.
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