Effects of Covid 19 on credit delinquency in the private banking sector of Ecuador 2019-2021
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Abstract
In the modern world there has not been a global pandemic of the dimensions of Covid-19, with a total of 6.94 million deaths worldwide (WHO, 2023), with this the financial institutions faced the imminent dangers of a credit crisis, despite taking measures to counteract the adverse effects, an evaluation of the effects caused by externalities in the credit portfolio of banks is relevant. Therefore, the research aims to determine whether COVID 19 had an impact on the delinquency of the credit portfolio of the banking sector in Ecuador, through a structural break analysis in the time series during the period 2019-2021. For this purpose, a research with experimental - correlational design is proposed, using quantitative tools, based on the Explanatory - Positivist paradigm. Through the application of the Wald test, the structural break years of the time series are shown, observing a series with changes in the year 2000, as a result of dollarization, in the year 2008 due to political factors, consequently in the year 2019 due to political destabilization, 2020 with the entry of COVID 19, and the projection of a 2023 with important changes.
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Irving Oswaldo Cochea-Domínguez, Universidad Estatal Península de Santa Elena - Ecuador
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7195-9241
Degree in Accounting and Auditing with solid training in financial sustainability, microfinance and financial auditing. With more than 4 years of experience in the area, I have led work teams, implementing innovative solutions and optimizing processes. My ability to address complex challenges and my commitment to academic excellence support my profile as a proactive and results-oriented professional.
Leonardo Cañizares-Cedeño , Universidad Estatal Península de Santa Elena - Ecuador
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1225-138X
Commercial Engineer from the University of Guayaquil, he has a master's degree in Business Administration from the Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral and a Doctorate in Strategic Administration from the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru. He has held management positions in the private sector and the public sector. He has been a private consultant in the field of operational and financial strategy of companies. He has 18 years of university teaching at the undergraduate and graduate levels, has given conferences and published several articles about his topics of interest.
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